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2019 Novel Coronavirus

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  • 2019 Novel Coronavirus

    As a resident of Beijing, I don't feel in grave danger from the current virus outbreak. I have heard seemingly educated, honest reasonable people saying this is less dangerous than the common flu and others saying it could be one of the worst pandemics ever.

    Day to day, things are quiet. People stay home. The shops, restaurants and cafes are practcally empty or closed. This is not too abormal as Chinese New Year has just ended and.the city is always emptier during that holiday. Supermarket and convenience store shelves are full. Official word is to work from home this week and return to the office next Monday Feb 10th.

    So everything seemed ok, until reading the analysis and prediction in the Lancet which predicts the epidemic won't peak until mid to late April. They currently estimate100,000 cases versus the official numbers of less than 20,000.

    Since The Lancet is the second most respected global medical journal, I take their predictions seriously.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...260-9/fulltext

  • #2
    I just heard an interesting Science vs. podcast on the coronavirus.
    https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aH...EegQIBxAE&ep=6

    Comment


    • sthubbar
      sthubbar commented
      Editing a comment
      Thank you for sharing. This is changing so fast that even 1 day old info is outdated. There are several YouTube channels providing daily updates.

  • #3
    Tom, I encourage you to check out Dr. Campbell's videos. He makes me nostalgic for the old school Ford Brewer videos where he held up paper to the webcam and tried to point at it. You know, before he went all Hollywood and hired makeup artists and image consultants.
     

    Comment


    • Tom
      Tom commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah, I have seen several of his videos and he is good.

  • #4
    Good general site here,

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

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    • #5
      ST,
      Thanks for sharing your first hand experiences without the news spin!

      Comment


      • #6
        The link broke. Try this one.
        https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/index.html

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        • #7
          As I am over 70, have an artificial heart valve, heart disease, and obese, I plan on isolating myself for up to 3 months if that's what it takes. I have 1 prescription to fill and then I should have at least 3 months of the meds I need.

          I bought everything I need for several home projects, so I have plenty to keep me busy if I do need to isolate. I am also getting my garden started so hopefully will have fresh greens if the virus hangs around into summer.

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          • #8
            I think that many people viewing here will have adequate vitamin D levels if they have been paying attention, but the COVID-19 virus makes it important to remind people. Below is an excellent video by John Campbell on how low vitamin D levels makes people much more susceptible to upper respiratory tract viral and bacterial infections. Even though COVID-19 is a virus, there often can be secondary acute bacterial infections of the respiratory tract. While too little vitamin D is a problem, please be careful to take no more than 5000 IU (125 mcg) a day unless you are getting your blood checked as Dr. Brewer has made videos on severe potential health problems due to too much vitamin D supplementation.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

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            • #9
              You can test for vitamin d through walkin labs or other online labs. You register through them and have a choice of Quest or Labcorp. The Vitamin D 25-Hydroxy Blood Test is $70 at Labcorp and $50 at Quest. Or you could get your doctor to order it at one of the labs and then just go there and have blood drawn if you don't want to go to doctor's office.

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              • #10
                I thought that this recent article on how scientists are evaluating different parts of the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) virus was interesting. It appears that there may be enough overlap to use some of the prior research on the original SARS-CoV virus in determining which sections of the virus provide an adequate immune response if used as a vaccine.
                https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_relea...-lsi031120.php

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                • #11
                  Here is a recent video by John Campbell where he discusses why taking a drug to reduce fever such as an NSAID (aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, diclofenac, advil and motrin which also can reduce inflammation) might not be the best approach for the COVID-19 virus. This is probably controversial for some people, but there is some rational science behind it. Obviously if a fever gets too high when the immune system kicks in too strong, then a person needs something to bring the fever down. Otherwise, just leaving a fever to run its course as part of the disease process might be the best thing to do.
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuWo5lmWuZI
                  Last edited by Tom; 03-16-2020, 06:54 AM.

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                  • #12
                    My wife is currently on intermittent courses of chemo. We live in Washington state, which is experiencing the most intense onset of COVID-19 in the country. She is currently between rounds of chemo and presently has a very competent immune system. Given that the virus seems ubiquitous in our area there is a part of my mind that wonders if she would be better off to get exposed, develop some memory T-cells to the virus and hopefully have future immunity. I'm certainly not intentionally exposing her (in fact we are exercising very strong precautions) and she is in quite a unique situation. I also realize no one can really answer this question for us, but one does wonder. I also fully appreciate the general medical approach yo flattening the trajectory of the spread in order to be able to manage critical illnesses with the limited medical resources we have available.

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                    • #13
                      Here is an interesting JAMA (The Journal of the American Medical Association) video with the JAMA editor-in-chief talking with Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic about the current efforts on vaccines, immunity and antivirals for the COVID-19 virus, and projecting out from what is currently known.
                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOgFYh7Ywo4

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                      • #14
                        Different doctors who treat Covid-19 have different points of view, but one that makes sense to me is that people who have a serious case of the coronavirus have a suppressed immune system that overreacts to the virus. I found some articles that list symptoms of suppressed immune system, but I'm wondering what lab results would be a good indication. I'm sure they have identified specific lab results that indicate a person would be at risk for getting a critical case of coronavirus. I have health problems that identify me as high risk, but I never get colds and have had flu only twice in my life.

                        The majority of people in my area being diagnosed with Covid-19 are in the 60's or 70's. The only way that makes sense is if there are lots of younger people with the virus who haven't been tested. Makes just going to the grocery store a challenging experience. I ordered a light bulb for my refrigerator and it just arrived in mail today. I opened package, put bulb in refrigerator, and about an hour later realized I hadn't disinfected the package or washed my hands after handing it. It's hard to be aware every waking moment.

                        Comment


                        • Tom
                          Tom commented
                          Editing a comment
                          Interestingly diabetes/obesity seem to be driving the more serious complications of COVID-19 from limited data in the US rather than hypertension by itself. There are a lot of people with diabetes or pre-diabetes who have no idea. The one obvious clue is excess body fat. Of course a lot of people develop hypertension and don't realize it or treat it adequately.
                          Last edited by Tom; 04-03-2020, 12:35 AM.
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